AID VOLATILITY AND DONOR REPUTATION: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM ZAMBIA

Title: AID VOLATILITY AND DONOR REPUTATION: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM ZAMBIA

Author: Lieke Snel

Year: 2025

Keywords: N/A

Themes: Post-development,Civil society and Democracy,Human Development and Human Security

Advisor(s): Dr. Pawin, Siriprapanukul, Ph.D.

The full thesis available N/A.

Abstract: The abrupt suspension of U.S. foreign aid in 2025 has raised questions about how aid volatility shapes donor reputation and the soft power of donor states. In Zambia, a country heavily affected by the 2025 aid cuts, the subsequent announcement of a new U.S. health sector commitment created an opportunity to examine whether donor reputation can be restored following a period of aid withdrawal. This study investigates the extent to which renewed U.S. health assistance influences trust, reputation, and willingness to cooperate with the United States, as well as how different aid framings shape these perceptions. Using a randomized video vignette experiment among Zambian respondents, participants were assigned to one of three conditions: aid cuts only, aid cuts followed by a neutrally framed health commitment, or aid cuts followed by a strategically framed health commitment emphasizing U.S. interests. The findings indicate that exposure to information about the aid cuts resulted in significantly less positive evaluations of the United States. However, renewed health assistance improved donor reputation and soft power-related outcomes relative to the cuts-only condition. These positive effects were significantly weaker when assistance was framed as serving American strategic interests. The study demonstrates that aid volatility can have important reputational consequences, while also showing that renewed assistance can help rebuild trust, reputation, and willingness to cooperate when perceived as a credible commitment rather than merely as a strategic instrument.